Saturday, September 29, 2007

New Hampshire Primary

As we are all aware, the New Hampshire Primary is the essential first step in winning the party nomination. History shows us that while you don't have to be first, you must have a good showing if other State Primaries are to be won.

New Hampshire rules are different than most States in that party members can vote for anyone, not just their own party which means that a popular candidate can receive a much needed boost from the other party. We are likely to see some of this as we have in the past, and perhaps a little more of this than in elections past due to the slate of candidates. Guiliani, of course, is seen as strong on terrorism and Clinton is the first serious female candidate and as such both of these are likely to see some crossover voting.

Due to this being an open election we can expect 200,000 to 250,000 votes on either side of the aisle, but also to include independents. And considering that the field is exceptionally crowded especially on the Republican side it is likely to be a rather close election. Currently Giuliani and Romney are polling at about 22% with McCain, having made a comeback of sorts, following at 17%. Fred "Bulldog" Thompson trails at 12%.

So what is needed for a winner of this poll? Perhaps only 30% I would say that 35% will likely be a rather handy win over the others. But one should never overlook the 2nd place. GW took 2nd in 2000 as did Bob Dole in 1996 and Bill Clinton in 1992. Remember Howard Dean? He also took second and because of that was given a huge boost which he ultimately destroyed in a single outburst.

Looking at the history of this primary it seems to me that to be taken seriously a candidate will need to take at least 25%, even in this crowded field. This translates to 59,000 votes minimum or 83,000 for a win. This will be the challenge for us Ron Paul supporters. We need this. We are very active, we are very vocal and as evidenced by the post below we are willing to put our money where our mouths are.

To the Paul supporters in the North East: Get out there! Put in your time in getting the word out about Dr. Paul. His message of freedom IS quite popular and gets people energized to go out and fight for it. Don't just target Republicans, work the Democrats as well. Many of those Democrats are anti-war but do not realize that Hillary, Edwards and Obama are all on record saying they will keep the troops there.

We CAN do this but it is going to be hard work on our part in making this happen. We cannot sit back and let the advertising dollars take over because we all know we cannot compete money-wise with the media darling Rudy McRompson. What we can do is share our love of Liberty and let it infect others as it has us.