Friday, December 28, 2007

So-Called Scientific Polling

This pic is an example of just why current methods of polling is about worthless.

Its all over the place. On the extreme end of things, Huckabee is at 23% in one and 36% in the next and Paul is at 10% and then 1%. How can this possibly be? Can a persons support jump 13% practically overnight? I would posit that it isn't possible without some fairly major event taking place, perhaps a disaster or attack or a candidate dropping out of the race. Therefor so-called "scientific" polling is dead or dying. It is no longer a reliable method of gauging public opinion and will need to be reworked in short order to remain valid.

Graphic is from specifically from the Iowa Republican race.

Friday, December 21, 2007

A Party Divided

Taken from Phyllis Schlafly's WND Column
A book of political history from 2003 called "Dark Horse: The Surprise Election and Political Murder of President James A. Garfield" (Carroll & Graf) might provide the model. Kenneth D. Ackerman tells the fascinating story of how the 1880 Republican National Convention in Chicago deadlocked, with three sets of delegates unwilling to abandon their first choice, and a totally unexpected non-candidate dark horse named James A. Garfield was nominated on the 36th ballot and then elected president.

Sen. James G. Blaine of Maine was the first major name placed in nomination, soon followed by New York powerhouse Sen. Roscoe Conkling's nomination of war hero Gen. U.S. Grant for a third term. The third major contender was Treasury Secretary John Sherman, nominated by his friend and campaign manager, Sen.-elect James A. Garfield.

The first ballot on Monday, June 7, produced Grant, 304; Blaine, 284; Sherman, 93; and a handful of votes for minor candidates. All were well short of the 379 votes needed to win.

It took two days and 36 ballots to make Garfield, who wasn't even running, the Republican Presidential candidate. This election is perhaps shaping up to have another floor fight over the nomination which hasn't happened in 50 years. The reason of course is that despite the media's much ballyhooed "top tier" and "front-runner" candidates, no one is taking a lead. The field is very crowded and the candidates are so close on issues (with the obvious exception of the good Dr. Paul) that no group or segment of the population has attached themselves to a particular candidate. and as noted in the cited article some 76% of Republicans are open to changing their mind as to whom they support. I think it is safe to say that there is no more than 5% of Ron Paul supporters who are so willing to change their support.

For those who care to keep an eye on the polls check out for the latest polling data compiled, averaged put into easy to read graphs. They even do the same for the polls of the early states.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Ann Coulter

Hey! How about adults privately smoking cigarettes in their homes? Nope, Huckabee wants a federal law banning smoking but thinks state laws banning sodomy are "probably" unconstitutional.
I love how consistent his reasoning is. One consensual destructive behavior should be banned while the other should be allowed.

Know what I would love to see? I would love to see Coulter endorse Ron Paul. Yeah it would be a big boost and all but that isn't the reason I want it. The day that Coulter endorses Paul will be the day Bane's head explodes! I don't know if he could handle his "goddess" supporting someone he dislikes so much. The question is, would he then like Paul? or hate Coulter?

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Holiday Pay

Or lack there of.

I'm a contractor working for one company that goes thru another that works for the place I'm at. Make sense? Basically the hiring company uses a contracting agency to fill positions and that agency will also use other agencies to fill positions it can't fill. So there are two middlemen between me and my check.

My agency doesn't give holiday pay, but the main one does. With that in mind I have been trying to get on with this other agency for the past month, especially considering there is not one, but two holidays upcoming. Well, I found out today the conversion isn't going to happen till next month which I am sure is entirely due to the delay in management asking about the conversion.

Also today I found out that it isn't 2 paid holidays, but 4. And as I will be working each of those days I will be missing out on 60 72 hours worth of pay. It isn't like this benefit hasn't been accruing, it's just been getting absorbed by the two layers of middlemen.


Sunday, December 16, 2007

Tea Party is ON!

I previously posted that I was predicting that the amount brought in would be approx 200 times the number of pledges. 2 days ago the pledges were at 31,000, when I checked at 3AM Eastern they are now at 35,539.

So my prediction is for $7,107,800 (+/- $177,695)

You can keep track of the progress on the RonPaulGraph or on the campaign website,

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Sunday, December 09, 2007


I am NOT crazy
I am NOT psycho
I AM responsible.

Three seemingly random shooting in the past week. One at a busy shopping mall in Omaha killing eight. Two in the past 24 hours here in Colorado killing two, injuring two at a YWAM base (Christian Missionary organization) and here at a church I used to attend and still have family and friends at. Injuries but no deaths as yet from the church attack.

I go to the mall on a regular basis when it is too cold to play outside so my boy has somewhere to run around. Sometimes I even go up to that church still. There are even less famous shootings at Walmart. Do I feel vulnerable? Do I feel afraid? HELL NO. I carry everywhere I go. I do it to protect my family, I do it to protect YOU.

Any scumbag who has already taken a life in a shooting like this has already made the decision to forfeit his right to life, and in the taking of an innocent life has finalized it. He will have made my decision for me. He will be shot. And while I am not going to say I am going to shoot to kill, if my shots end up killing him there would be no sorrow. I will take two center of mass shots and if that fails I will take a head shot.

Oh the bright spot to this story is that it appears that the gunman at the church was fatally shot, which means that someone at the church fired back. There is a possibility that it was an officer as New Life is a megachurch and has one there during the service. I will post more if I hear about it.

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Sugarland - Stay

Damn, this song speaks to me!
I can't take it any longer
But my will is getting stronger
And I think I know just what I have to do
I can't waste another minute
After all that I've put in it
I've given you my best
Why does she get the best of you
So next time you find you wanna leave her bed for mine

Why don't you stay
I'm up off my knees
I'm so tired of being lonely
You can't give me what I need

When she begs you not to go
There is one thing you should know
I don't have to live this way

Baby, why don't you stay, yeah
This has got to be one of the best music videos ever. I don't believe I have ever seen real emotion in a video before, but its pretty powerful, especially with the subject.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Mitt Romney's Speech

I didn't catch the full Romney faith speech. Honestly wouldn't have even if I had the time. But I did catch a small snippet on the evening news. In it Romney states that he believes that Jesus is the son of God and that Jesus is the savior.

Well that sounds really good and Christian even. But Romney isn't a Christian, he is a Mormon. And Mormons copy Christian terms and give them a different meaning. So when a Mormon says that they believe that Jesus is the son of God, remember that they also believe that Satan is the son of God and that Jesus and Satan are brothers.

So what does the statement that Jesus is the savior mean? Ask a Mormon and they will tell you that Jesus died to give us eternal life, or everlasting life, or perhaps to save us from death or sin. Sounds good, but again it doesn't mean what the average Christian believes it to mean. The Mormons believed that Jesus died so that we could all be reborn. Not just Mormons or Christians, but EVERYONE. And that rebirth isn't salvation, not is it entrance into heaven or atonement for our sins. Its simply rebirth or resurrection.

Please keep this in mind when talking with a Mormon. They ARE NOT Christians despite the fact that they will tell you that they are or that they use all the right sounding words. Their doctrine is not sound and is indeed heresy.

2Tim 4:3-4 For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine; but after their own lusts shall they heap to themselves teachers, having itching ears; And they shall turn away their ears from the truth, and shall be turned unto fables.

Saturday, December 01, 2007


Today my Lil' Bear got to see his first live music. Not once, but twice. The first was at a local mall where we happened upon a group of Air Force Academy cadets who were setting up for their performance. We were there well early of when they were to start so I showed Lil Bear the different instruments. Flutes, trombones, violins, cellos, drums, xylophones, a trumpet, a tuba, a french horn, and an oboe. He was fairly interested but I wasn't sure how he would do with the music (plus the long wait) Well as it turns out he adored it! He spent a good 30 minutes dancing and running in circles (mainly around me) and spinning and occasionally running too close to eh orchestra prompting daddy to make a quick dash to grab him.

The second time was at the Annual Parade of Lights, which showcases the marching bands of the various high schools and at least one middle school. There were floats and horses and a lot of lights. There was also a Snow Cat which my boy liked quite a bit. On the way back to the car we were talking about what we saw and when the drums came up he would say boom boom and then laugh. I was already planning on making music a standard thing around the house and was thinking of getting something along those lines this month. Now I know I am going to.

Today was a lot of fun. I wish every day could be.

I forgot to add that my boy got both a hug and a kiss from a little girl. Not even two and he is already mackin'!