Thursday, October 20, 2005

Response to Roci

This is from a conversation over at Wes's Blog in the comments.

Roci writes
1. China should not be underestimated. They should be exploited. We are doing that quite nicely now.

Are we truly exploiting China? I doubt they see it that way. In fact, they have continued to help us out by not floating their monetary system which would cause huge upheavals in our economy.
2. China's submarines are quieter than our because they can't leave port under their own power. They are refurbed russian boats. We know where they are, all the time. If they come to blows with us, they won't survive long enough to be a threat. Sound is not everything.

Part of the problem (or benefit) of subs is that you dont know where they are. Sub detection technology is still very limited, and with oceans so big they are nearly impossible to find. And according to Richard Fisher, Jr., a China weapons expert and vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said China's submarine development was comparable enough to U.S. technology to be a legitimate threat. "The Type 094 will constitute the first reliable Chinese second [nuclear] strike capability," he said.
3. National debt is meaningless. What will happen when the money runs out? Ask Alexander Hamilton. He was secretary of the treasury the last time we had a balanced budget. Money is just paper. The national debt, more paper. We have lots of trees and can make a LOT of paper.

We most certainly can make a lot of paper. The problem is, who wants paper? Right now a lot of people do, and will trade for it. But paper is just that. Paper. As it has no intrinsic value it is only worth what others would give for it. Hyper inflation can and has happened in the past and can very well happen to us. As one notable example, hyper-inflation in post WWI Weimar Republic (Germany) was so horrific that by 1923 it cost 5 million marks to mail a letter.
4. The rate of inflation is a guess. Maybe it is right. A monthly rate is meaningless.

Rate of Inflation is not a guess. on 8/1/05 x = $100.00 then on 9/1/05 x = $101.90 Indeed that isnt much but that is just one month. And while it isnt wise to say that one months inflation will carry out for the whole year, once it is there it doesnt go away. (when was the last time you heard of deflation happening?)
5. 20 million man army in china? Who cares? How far can they swim? Gee that means we might have to use 5% of our nuclear arsenal.

The original point was that China isnt some 3rd world country. China is currently a top user of every commodity and will soon surpass the US in every single one for those it hasnt already. That isnt a weakness. Once they become the top consumer it would be wise of them to float their money and adjust it to its actual worth which is higher than it is now. What would that mean? It would mean that China could purchase at an even higher rate (causing us to pay more via the iron law of Supply & Demand) and bye-bye cheap imports for the US. We face more threats than simply militarily or from terrorists. Economics is going to be what takes this country down. Odd how that happens when countries become socialist.

I leave with this quote
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -- Thomas Jefferson in 1802 in a letter to then Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin