Friday, December 28, 2007

So-Called Scientific Polling

This pic is an example of just why current methods of polling is about worthless.

Its all over the place. On the extreme end of things, Huckabee is at 23% in one and 36% in the next and Paul is at 10% and then 1%. How can this possibly be? Can a persons support jump 13% practically overnight? I would posit that it isn't possible without some fairly major event taking place, perhaps a disaster or attack or a candidate dropping out of the race. Therefor so-called "scientific" polling is dead or dying. It is no longer a reliable method of gauging public opinion and will need to be reworked in short order to remain valid.

Graphic is from specifically from the Iowa Republican race.